Holiday Weight Gain Isn’t Inevitable

Here’s what the research actually says (and what to do instead)

There’s something undeniably magical about the holidays.

Family. Traditions. Giving. Togetherness.

And food.
So. Much. Food.

From mid-November through January, it’s basically one long stretch of parties, dinners, leftovers, travel snacks, and “well, it is the holidays.”

Which is why every year, without fail, the fitness world loses its collective mind.

On one end, you’ve got memes telling you how many burpees it takes to “burn off” Christmas dinner. (Immediate no. Capital D dumb.)

On the other end, you’ve got the well-meaning “just enjoy the holidays!” advice—which sounds nice, but also isn’t particularly helpful if you care about maintaining your progress.

So what’s actually true?

Do people gain weight during the holidays?
Is it inevitable?
And more importantly—what actually helps?

Let’s look at the research.

Do people really gain weight during the holidays?

Short answer: yes.

One of the most cited studies on holiday weight gain (Yanovski et al.) followed adults from mid-November through mid-January.

What they found:

Average weight gain during the holidays: ~0.8 lbs
Some weight was lost afterward
But the net gain? About 1 lb

And this wasn’t a one-off.

Multiple studies across different countries and populations show similar trends:

Most people gain 1–2 lbs during the holiday season
A portion of that weight often sticks around well into the spring

In other words: holiday weight gain is real—and for many people, it’s cumulative year after year.

Why does this happen?

It’s not because everyone suddenly “loses discipline.”

It’s because of predictable, seasonal behavior changes.

Research consistently shows that during colder months:

Physical activity declines
Sedentary time increases
Light daily movement drops

At the same time, calorie intake tends to increase.

One year-long study found that people consumed ~86 more calories per day in the fall compared to spring—before accounting for holiday parties, travel, and social events.

Eighty-six calories doesn’t sound dramatic.
But over a month, that’s ~2,600 extra calories—or roughly 0.7 lbs of potential weight gain.

Stack that with reduced movement and a few festive weekends, and suddenly the math starts mathing.

But here’s the part most people miss

Most of the studies showing holiday weight gain looked at people who:

Weren’t actively pursuing a health goal
Weren’t monitoring their behaviors
Weren’t being intentional in any meaningful way

So the better question is:

What happens when people are paying attention?

What actually prevents holiday weight gain?

A large systematic review examined interventions designed to prevent holiday weight gain.

These included:

Self-weighing
Food tracking
Mindful eating
Improving self-efficacy

The result?
An average difference of ~3.2 lbs compared to control groups.

Not because people were perfect—but because they were aware.

Self-monitoring works because it creates feedback.
You notice patterns.
You adjust earlier.
You course-correct before things spiral.

Self-weighing is especially powerful

Several studies show that people who weigh themselves regularly:

Maintain or lose weight
Respond more quickly to small increases
Avoid the slow creep that happens when there’s no feedback

In one study, participants who weighed daily during the holidays either maintained or lost weight—while the control group gained nearly 6 lbs.

No diet prescribed.
No meal plan handed out.
Just awareness.

Food logging shows the same pattern

Consistency beats perfection.

One large study found that participants who logged food intake 5+ days per week lost twice as much weight as those who logged only 1–2 days per week.

Not every day.
Not forever.
Just often enough to stay aware.

What successful weight maintainers do differently

Researchers also looked at people from the National Weight Control Registry—individuals who’ve lost weight and kept it off long-term.

During the holidays, the most common strategies were:

Continuing their normal exercise routine
Weighing themselves regularly
Choosing which holiday foods were actually worth it
Eating lighter at other meals when social events were coming
Minimizing tempting foods at home
Focusing on non-food aspects of the season

The common thread wasn’t restriction.

It was planning.

People who decided in advance how they’d navigate the holidays were far more likely to follow through.

The takeaway

Holiday weight gain isn’t inevitable—but neither is progress.

You don’t need perfection.
You don’t need to skip every party.
You also probably shouldn’t be a complete asshole with your food intake.

Semi-asshole? Acceptable. It is the holidays.

A little awareness goes a long way.

If maintaining your weight—or even making progress—matters to you, your actions just need to reflect that most of the time.

And if you can stay even slightly mindful over the next few weeks, you’ll be in a far better position come January—without needing a dramatic reset.

TL;DR

Most people gain 1–2 lbs during the holidays, and some of it sticks
Seasonal changes in movement and intake drive this—not willpower
Self-monitoring (weighing, logging) dramatically improves outcomes
You don’t need extremes—just awareness and intention